One of my favorite quotes is — A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. I am using this quote to signify a milestone that I will be reaching today. I am writing my 200th post and it took me 3 years to reach this milestone. Click here to read the rest.


13 thoughts on “Invariants

  1. Trump all the way!

    So depressing ☹

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  2. Another thoughtful post by Jana. Truly you have the gift of reducing complexities to a level where a teenager can also grasp the meaning. Hats off to you. Regarding the invariables, I believe that US is a mature economy whereas the Indian economy is still at a stage where there is a lot of growth potential. In a mature economy, invariables tend to be fewer in number whereas in a growing economy there are bound to be many more. In US, you have the example of Coke which gave returns over a century. In India, I cant think of one stock which gave returns over a period of over 25 years. For instance, the blue chips of the 60s like Century, ACC, Tata Steel are not worth investing now.

    • Kaviraj,

      India got liberalized starting from 1991. From that point onwards our productivity sky rocketed. So we do have 25 years of track record to see who the winners are.

      A lot of companies created enormous wealth to the shareholders and they had very few variables which decided the returns. Look at IT, FMCG, and Pharma they created a tons of wealth for the shareholders.

      Motilal Oswal’s wealth creation study is a good place to thumb through and look at the past winners –

      As they say, everything is clear in hindsight. But money is made in the markets with foresight.


  3. Jana – great article. floored by your thought process. I thought I will share this – the video you inserted in the middle of Brain fox, mirror experiment – i some how could not grasp what he was saying. Was searching along and found this – this struck a cord. So probably your readers may like it ( or may not..) :

    Thanks, Ganesh Raao

  4. Thank you jana !!! The “invariants” are totally different way of looking at the businesses. I have been invested in a real estate company for last 4 yrs. the variables of its growth are population growth,affordable housing,carbon positive homes and cities, raising quality of life at bottom of the pyramid, size of the market. Please jana I would appreciate if you can go through the company “mahindra life spaces”. The share price is same level as it was four yrs ago. Company is at a stage of predictable business model of profitability yr after yr.

    Warm regards, Ranjeet


  5. Dear Jana

    “The best a human can do to another is to help him know more” – Munger

    Again a brilliant post, have learnt a few things.

    Curious to know –

    How do you find KEY VARIABLES & INVARIANTS in case of companies with “growing moats” if you are looking to catch them early?


    Hiten Muchhala

    • Hiten,

      Thanks for your comments. I don’t have any experience in spotting invariants in catching moated business early. But I can tell you one thing – It’s damn hard. If it had been easy then everyone would have made money by just following few simple rules. What’s clear in hindsight is not clear as a priori.


  6. Hi Jana! I have been following your blog for a while from Europe. I have to say: quite an inspiration! You gave me a wonderful way to approach the mental models framework with incredibly useful information, links and cross references. Thank you for your good work, keep it up! And congratulations to your milestone. Marc

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