Break it down and reason up

Few weeks back I was watching Jeff Bezos being interviewed by Charlie Rose. In it Bezos explained why space travel is expensive and what needs to be done to make it affordable. Bezos explained it by breaking down the constituents of rocket. And reasoning up by using first principles, which is the physics way of looking at the world. His explanation made me speechless. Click here to read the rest.

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11 thoughts on “Break it down and reason up

  1. Hi jana
    use this same concept to break down a problem to its constituents and estimate probabilities of each part. roll it up to evaluate the overall probability. this approach is also used by superforecasters ..its in phil tetlock’s book. btw, the principle overall principle was first developed by fermi – also called the fermi problem

    • Thanks Rohit. Yes the technique was developed by Enrico Fermi. References section has a video which talks about Fermi’s techniques.

      Regards,
      Jana

    • Hi Raj,

      Thanks for the feedback.

      I used GoodNotes + iPencil for writing. The resolution got low when I embedded the notes in Scrivener. Going forward I will make sure to type the contents.

      Regards,
      Jana

  2. Janav, Hi I think the above reasoning of first principles especially on space front was said by Elon Musk, please google it see his interviews on first principles.

    • Balesh,

      Yes it was said by Elon in an interview. And the topic heading captures it. Also the References section contains the link to his interview.

      Regards,
      Jana

  3. Sorry that say you guy, but your whole cosin similarity is bad. From the base. I worked it on it for a year, and you missed a lot of part. Sorry. It is true.

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